probability theory

Uncertain Gods: Navigating The Materium’s Stochastic Shitstorm

Probabilistic Formalism for the Uninitiated: Navigating the Epistemic Maelstrom of a Disordered Cosmos We exist in a Materium fundamentally composed of energy and matter. The Materium, also called “real-space,” is a tangible, four-dimensional region of spacetime where corporeal beings live. The Materium represents the physical plane of existence defined by the four basic natural forces—gravity, electromagnetism, strong force, and weak …

customer lifetime value LTV professor

Voodoo Math, Alien Economics, and LTV

One of my main intellectual strategies is to explore important neglected topics where I can find an original angle to pursue. As a result, I tend to lose interest in topics as they get more attention. This is why I’ve avoided customer lifetime value. Sure, it is plausibly important, but there are millions of articles written about it online, and …

cognitive biases

The Human Supercomputer, Bias, Suboptimalities and Outcomes

The human brain is a powerful computer that’s capable of incredible things, but it’s also full of bugs and extremely prone to error. These errors, also called “cognitive biases” are mental mistakes that can affect both our thinking and actions. What is Cognitive Bias? A cognitive bias is an error in cognition that arises in a person’s line of reasoning …

mental models smoov brain

Mental Models – The Comprehensive Guide

Mental Models: how to avoid “smoov.bra.in2023” reasoning errors and suboptimal outcomes.  The human brain is a fascinating machine. It’s a complex system comprised of billions of interactions which shape our thoughts, feelings, dreams, memories, and ultimately make us who we are. Powering the human earth-suit, the brain is (quite arguably) the most advanced piece of hardware/software ever made. But the …

game theory mental models deimos one data science animus

Mental Models (Part 4)

Use these mental models to improve your problem-solving and decision-making skills and overcome common [smoov.bra.in2023] reasoning errors.  PDF: We created a clean, printable PDF of this series for offline reading. Buy it here or view a preview. Greetings, my fellow plebeians. I hope you are enjoying this series so far.  In case you missed the first three installments, you can …

deimos one data science mad scientist

Mental Models (Part 3)

Use these mental models to improve your problem-solving and decision-making skills and overcome common [smoov.bra.in2023] reasoning errors.  PDF: We created a clean, printable PDF of this series for offline reading. Buy it here or view a preview. Mental Models: Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 4 In an age where data is abundant, but wisdom is increasingly scarce, the currency of clarity has …

Deimos One Data Science

Mental Models (Part 2)

Use these mental models to improve your problem-solving and decision-making skills and overcome common [smoov.bra.in2023] reasoning errors.  PDF: We created a clean, printable PDF of this series for offline reading. Buy it here or view a preview. Mental Models: Part 1 | Part 3 | Part 4 Greetings, my fellow plebeians. I hope this message finds you well and thriving in your …

Deimos-One Mad Scientist halo

Mental Models (Part 1)

Use these mental models to improve your problem-solving and decision-making skills and overcome common [smoov.bra.in2023] reasoning errors.  PDF: We created a clean, printable PDF of this series for offline reading. Buy it here or view a preview. Mental Models: Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4 As an economist by way of education (not profession), I was introduced to Charlie Munger’s now …

Apocalypse Soldier - The End of Times Predictions & Prophecy

The End of Times – Predictions & Prophecy

In this shitty bathroom analysis we examine Doomsday Probability (USA/Russia/et al) using our Proprietary Decisioning System [smoov.bra.in2023] to test our hypothesis. INTRO TO THE END 📊 There has been a rumor going around this week that the US and Russia are on the brink of thermonuclear war. Something about a power plant in Ukraine, some explosives, high tensions, and possibly …